Primary aluminum markets in China are set to continue to witness surplus supply in 2024, as the rate of production would outpace consumption, sources and analysts said.
消息人士和分析師預計：2024年中國原鋁繼續呈現供應過剩的局面，因為生產速度將超過消費量。
However, output cuts in Yunnan, China's major aluminum hub, could emerge as a "wild card" in 2024, which could impact total aluminum supply in the case of worsening power shortages that would lead to more capacity curbs, according to industry experts.
然而，據行業專家稱，中國主要鋁中心云南的減產可能會在2024年成為“不確定因素”。這可能會影響鋁供應總量，因為電力短缺加劇，將導致更多的產能限制。
Despite this situation, sources said they expect profit margins of Chinese smelters to remain healthy, as oversupply continues to weigh on domestic alumina prices while rising bauxite imports relieve raw material supply pressure in the domestic market.
盡管存在這種情況，但消息人士表示，他們預計中國冶煉廠的利潤率將保持健康狀態。因供應過剩繼續打壓國內氧化鋁價格，而鋁土礦進口增加緩解了國內市場的原材料供應壓力。
The Platts China Domestic Alumina Daily assessment stood at Yuan 3,000/mt ($421/mt) ex-works Shanxi on Dec. 21, about 0.16% higher from the year-ago level. Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
根據普氏能源資訊，12月21日，中國國產氧化鋁日估價為3,000元/噸（421美元/噸）山西出廠價，較去年同期上漲約0.16%。
There is limited new capacity set to come on stream in 2024, with established primary aluminum capacity already close to the national capacity ceiling of around 45 million mt/year, sources said.
消息人士稱，2024年投產的新產能有限，已建立的原鋁產能已經接近全國約4,500萬噸/年的產能上限。
Most of the new projects were capacity transfers based on capacity replacement policies or those obtained quotas subjecting to certain special policies.
大多數新項目是基于產能置換政策的產能轉移，或者是受某些特殊政策約束的配額。
Russian aluminum is set to dominate China's import markets amid Russia's war with Ukraine, keeping Chinese imports at elevated levels, market sources said. Meanwhile, China's aluminum exports are expected to see a decline due to a slower recovery in overseas demand, they said.
市場消息人士稱，在俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰爭中，俄羅斯鋁將主導中國的進口市場，使中國的進口保持在較高水平。與此同時，他們表示，由于海外需求復蘇放緩，預計中國鋁出口將出現下降。
來源：普氏能源資訊 電解鋁編譯、整理
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